Putin’s India Visit: A Tense Tightrope Walk for the Modi Government

The arrival of Vladimir Putin in New Delhi on December 4–5, 2025 — his first trip to India since the war in Ukraine began — marks one of the most consequential diplomatic moments for Narendra Modi’s government in recent years. On paper, the visit reinforces the deep, decades-long strategic bond between India and Russia. In practice, it turns into a high-stakes balancing act: between old alliances and evolving global pressure. 

🎯 What’s on the Agenda

• The formal highlight is the 23rd annual summit between India and Russia — the first since 2021. Putin’s agenda encompasses meetings with India’s top leadership, including a state banquet, formal talks, and a business forum.
• Both sides are expected to ink a variety of agreements spanning trade, energy, defence, civil nuclear cooperation, agriculture, health, media and cultural exchange.
• Defence cooperation is central. Anticipated discussions include additional procurement of the S-400 missile system air-defence batteries and possibly newer platforms like Su-57 fighter aircraft jets.
• On economic front, India and Russia are pushing for payment mechanisms outside the dollar — including rupee–rouble trade — and are exploring expanded cooperation in sectors such as machinery, pharmaceuticals, agriculture and manufacturing.
• Another critical agenda: labour and mobility cooperation. A pact is expected to facilitate migration of skilled Indian workers to Russia to meet Moscow’s labour demands — a rare emphasis on people-to-people links. 

⚠️ Why It's a Diplomatic Tightrope

• Western Pressure vs. Historical Ties

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, many Western countries — especially the United States — have ramped up pressure on nations doing business with Moscow. India has already faced punitive tariffs for its Russian oil imports.  

Deepening defence and energy ties now risks further straining New Delhi’s relations with Western allies, even as India claims to maintain a non-aligned, independent foreign policy. 

• Imbalanced Trade and Economic Risks

India’s imports from Russia — especially crude oil — have ballooned, making the trade heavily skewed in favour of Russia. In contrast, exports from India to Russia remain minimal, leading to a persistent trade deficit. 

Sorting out this imbalance is tricky. While Russia has signalled willingness to import Indian pharmaceuticals, agriculture and manufactured goods, convincing Russian buyers and building demand — especially under global sanctions and financial turbulence — remains difficult. 

• Defence Diversification vs. Dependence

Historically, India’s military hardware has depended heavily on Russian platforms. Experts note that roughly two-thirds of India’s military systems are of Russian origin — making defence cooperation a strategic necessity. 

Yet, India has been gradually diversifying defence procurement toward Western sources. Ramping up deals with Russia now — including newer jets or more S-400 units — might send mixed signals and complicate India’s broader defence modernization strategy. 

• Managing Global Perception & Domestic Politics

While Russian ties enjoy considerable political and public goodwill in India, the optics of a high-profile meeting with Putin — as western powers criticise Moscow — could stir diplomatic unease abroad.

At home, any increase in oil imports or defence dependence can draw scrutiny from the opposition and civil society — especially if seen as compromising India’s long-term strategic autonomy.

☑️ What Modi Government Gains — and Risks

✅ Potential Gains

• Securing discounted Russian energy and possibly stabilising domestic energy prices and supply.
• Strengthening defence readiness with upgraded systems — something that helps amid regional security challenges.
• Diversifying trade and expanding cooperation beyond energy: tech, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, manpower mobility — useful for long-term economic resilience.
• Reinforcing India's strategic autonomy: showing that India doesn’t bend to pressure, and charting its own course in a multipolar world. 

⚠️ Risks & Trade-offs

• Escalation of tensions with the West, especially the U.S., over defence and energy cooperation with Russia.
• Continued trade imbalance, with long-term economic costs if India fails to boost exports to Russia.
• Strategic ambiguity in defence — a potential risk to clarity and long-term procurement planning if India oscillates between Russian and Western suppliers.
• Domestic pushback or criticism over perceived over-dependence on Russia, especially if global pressure mounts or if sanctions cause ripple effects.

🔎 In Short: A Defining Moment

Putin’s 2025 visit to India isn’t just another diplomatic event; it’s a test for India’s doctrine of strategic autonomy. By welcoming the Russian President — resuming deep engagement after the Ukraine-triggered hiatus — New Delhi signals that it intends to keep its traditional ties alive.

But every handshake, every agreement and every missile deal now carries added significance. For the Modi government, this is more than diplomacy: it’s a careful, high-wire act between sharks.