Pak Panics? Strikes in Afghanistan as Taliban Minister Makes Maiden India Trip

Pak Panics? Strikes in Afghanistan as Taliban Minister Makes Maiden India Trip

As Afghanistan’s Taliban foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, embarks on his first-ever official visit to India since the Taliban takeover in 2021, Islamabad’s jitters are becoming increasingly conspicuous. What was intended as a diplomatic outreach by Kabul has triggered alarm in Pakistani security circles, setting the stage for escalating tensions in the region.

A Diplomatic Milestone — and a Provocation

• Muttaqi landed in New Delhi on October 9, 2025, for a six-day visit aimed at strengthening political, economic, and trade ties with India. Reuters+2Reuters+2
• The visit is historic: no senior Taliban official has officially visited India before. Reuters+1
• During his trip, he is slated to meet Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and engage with Indian business leaders, while also visiting cultural sites such as the Taj Mahal. Reuters+1

From New Delhi’s perspective, the engagement is pragmatic: India has not formally recognised the Taliban regime but has maintained a technical mission in Kabul and extended humanitarian, health, and development cooperation. Reuters+2Reuters+2

But in Islamabad, the symbolism cuts deep: the shift hints at Kabul’s willingness to hedge away from Pakistan’s orbit, and the timing has rattled Pakistan’s strategic calculations.

Strikes, Denials, and a Regional Game of Blame

Pakistan Launches Cross-Border Operations

Even as Muttaqi touched down in India, reports surfaced that Pakistan had carried out airstrikes in Kabul, allegedly targeting Pakistani Taliban (TTP) leader Noor Wali Mehsud near Abdul Haq Square. Wikipedia

If confirmed, the strikes would mark one of the boldest instances of Pakistani military action inside Afghan airspace since the Taliban takeover. National security analysts in Islamabad argue that the TTP has been using Afghan sanctuaries to orchestrate attacks across Pakistan’s northwestern frontier.

Kabul Pushback: Denials and Warnings

The Taliban government, still cautious about overt military confrontation with Islamabad, has not publicly confirmed the strikes but has launched investigations into the reports. Wikipedia

Earlier episodes suggest a pattern: following Pakistani air raids in eastern Afghanistan (including in Paktika province), the Taliban summoned Pakistan’s envoy to lodge protests. The Economic Times+1

Analysts view Islamabad’s cross-border actions and subsequent denials as an attempt to reassert control over militant networks and project strength amid mounting strategic discomfort.

Accusations of Indian Involvement

Adding layers to the uncertainty, Pakistan has also accused India of carrying out missile strikes within Afghanistan—allegations both India and Kabul have vehemently rejected. Business Standard+2The Financial Express+2

In a landmark phone conversation with Muttaqi earlier in 2025, India’s Foreign Minister Jaishankar welcomed the Taliban’s condemnation of a recent terror attack in Kashmir and rejected Pakistan’s claims of Indian strikes as “false and baseless.” The Times of India+3The Indian Express+3India Today+3

Muttaqi, too, pushed back against the allegations during that exchange, underscoring Kabul’s own sensitivity to being drawn into the Indo-Pak dichotomy. Hindustan Times

Why Pakistan Is Worried

1. Erosion of Influence in Kabul

Pakistan has long viewed Afghanistan as a strategic backyard—crucial for depth in its security doctrine and for projecting influence toward Central Asia. A deepening Delhi–Kabul engagement threatens this paradigm.

2. Legitimacy Battle

By sanctioning a Taliban minister’s visit and overtly engaging with Kabul, India gains soft legitimacy as a regional stakeholder. Islamabad fears being sidelined as the region’s alignments shift.

3. Security Calculus: TTP & Border Terrorism

The audacious Pakistani strikes underscore Islamabad’s anxiety over TTP operations from Afghan soil. With India stepping into Kabul politically, Pakistan may fear restraints on its freedom to act unilaterally against militants across the border.

4. Messaging to Domestic and Global Audiences

By showing that it can send ordnance into Kabul, Pakistan sends a signal domestically to hardliners and internationally that it can still project force. At the same time, Islamabad is forced to manage diplomatic backlash and allegations of sovereignty violation.

Potential Spillovers & Regional Implications -

• Afghanistan’s Balancing Act: Kabul faces a tightrope: it must discourage Pakistani violation of its sovereignty while maintaining enough pragmatism to avoid a full-blown confrontation.
• India’s Diplomatic Play: New Delhi is likely to tread cautiously—publicly interacting with Kabul while denying acts of aggression from its side. Its interest is in expanding economic engagement, development aid, and influence without being drawn into military confrontations.
• Pakistan’s Risk of Isolation: If Islamabad continues unilateral military forays, it risks international opprobrium and isolation—especially if civilian casualties are involved.
• Militant Dynamics: The TTP’s role remains central. If Pakistan steps up strikes, the TTP may retaliate, potentially triggering cross-border tit-for-tat violence.
• Great Power Interest: Russia, China, and Iran are watching closely. Moscow recently hosted a Taliban delegation and opposed foreign military presence in Afghanistan. AP News China and Russia may view the India–Afghanistan engagement as a shift in regional balance, with Islamabad scrambling to shore up its alliances.

What Happens Next?

• Pakistan may escalate air operations, possibly targeting multiple points in Afghanistan, aiming to preempt further cross-border attacks.
• Kabul could formally protest or seek mediator intervention (e.g. via the UN or neighboring states) if airstrikes are confirmed.
• India might limit its public rhetoric, maintaining a posture of development cooperation and strategic restraint to avoid giving Pakistan a pretext for escalation.
• Regional diplomacy may heat up, with rival states (China, Iran, Central Asians) recalibrating their Afghanistan policies.

Conclusion

What began as a cautious diplomatic outreach by Kabul has catalysed a sharp reaction in Islamabad. The Taliban’s maiden ministerial voyage to India threatens to fracture long-standing regional assumptions, disturb Pakistan’s strategic comfort zone, and reconfigure South Asia’s geostrategic chessboard. Whether Pakistan’s strikes represent a calculated deterrent or overreach remains to be seen—but the message is unmistakable: Islamabad is prepared to act, even if the costs spiral beyond control.